Tesla Warns Optimus Production Will Be "Long and Flat" as Musk Names Samsung, TSMC, and Micron as Key Partners
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Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot program is advancing — but CEO Elon Musk is setting expectations firmly in check. During the company's second quarter 2026 earnings call on July 22, Musk delivered an unusually candid warning: Optimus production will start slow and stay slow before it eventually scales. Musk framed it in engineering terms that every Silicon Valley founder recognizes: the dreaded flat portion of the S-curve. Understanding why matters for anyone watching Tesla's most ambitious bet.
The "Long and Flat" Warning
"The initial portion of the S-curve will be quite flat and long," Musk told analysts on the call. He went further: "This is going to be the hardest to scale in manufacturing that we've ever made at Tesla." That is a striking statement from a company that has mass-produced batteries, electric motors, and structural castings at gigafactory scale.
The challenge, Musk explained, stems from the sheer novelty of the supply chain. Unlike Model 3 or even Cybertruck — which could draw on existing automotive Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers — Optimus requires components that simply do not have established vendors. Tesla is building an entirely new industrial ecosystem, and that does not happen quickly.
"There is no humanoid robot that is actually able to do generalized tasks. Optimus will be the first one that is capable of doing that." — Elon Musk, Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Samsung, TSMC, Micron: An Unusual Shoutout
What made the Q2 call remarkable was Musk doing something he rarely does: publicly thanking specific chip suppliers by name. He singled out Samsung, TSMC, and Micron as critical partners for the Optimus program — a public signal that these relationships are strategic, not transactional.
According to reporting by TrendForce and Digitimes, Samsung Foundry is currently producing Tesla's AI5 chip at its Texas fabrication facility, with Tesla's next-generation AI6 chip already in development. TSMC is expected to share production capacity as volumes scale. Together, the two foundries are investing tens of billions of dollars in Texas and Arizona fabs that will directly feed Tesla's Optimus and autonomy programs. A reported $16.4 billion foundry supply contract with Samsung has been cited by industry analysts, though Tesla has not officially confirmed the figure.
Micron's role is different but equally critical: memory. Musk described memory pricing in stark terms — "the biggest price jump in anything I've ever seen" — and noted that Micron had committed to long-term allocation for Tesla at reasonable terms despite "abnormally surging" market prices. "They're making room for Tesla in the years to come," Musk said. That phrasing, in an earnings call context, is functionally a thank-you to a strategic supplier who held firm on pricing when others were gouging.
| Partner | Role | Key Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung Foundry | AI5 chip production | Texas fab; AI6 in development; reported ~$16.4B supply contract |
| TSMC | AI chip co-production | Arizona fab expansion; Optimus + FSD compute |
| Micron | Memory allocation | Long-term DRAM/NAND supply at fixed terms amid memory price spike |
| Panasonic | Battery cells | Named alongside semiconductor partners for Optimus power systems |
The Production Targets — and Why They're Ambitious
Tesla has set two milestone targets for Optimus production. Optimus 3, currently assembling at the company's Fremont factory on the former Model S/X line, is targeting 1 million units per year at full run rate. The longer-term vision is Optimus 4, slated for Tesla's Austin Gigafactory, with an eventual target of 10 million units annually.
Those numbers are extraordinary. For context, Tesla produced roughly 1.8 million cars in 2025 across all vehicle lines. Building humanoid robots at that scale — with Musk noting that Tesla is building an entirely new supply chain from scratch — is a categorically different manufacturing challenge. Musk acknowledged that current production rates are "literally impossible to predict" because so many variables are still being resolved in real-time.
What "Long and Flat" Means for Investors
The warning carries practical weight. Tesla's stock fell more than 17% during the week of July 21-25, driven by the combination of a Q2 earnings profit miss, negative free cash flow of -$1.09 billion, and a raised capex guide of $25 billion for 2026. Investors had priced in a near-term Optimus revenue contribution; Musk is now explicitly resetting that timeline.
The flat-and-long ramp language also parallels Tesla's early days with the Model 3 in 2017-2018, when production hell delayed the vehicle by nearly a year. The difference: Optimus is not a car. There is no existing regulatory framework, no established fleet maintenance network, and no consumer expectation to benchmark against. The ramp will be measured in learning, not in quarterly units.
The Bottom Line for Tesla Watchers
Musk's candor on the Q2 call is itself noteworthy — Tesla CEOs do not typically warn analysts that a flagship product will ramp slowly. The public acknowledgment of Samsung, TSMC, Micron, and Panasonic as named partners also suggests that Tesla is deliberately building visible supply chain credibility around Optimus, likely to reassure institutional investors who've begun scrutinizing the program's industrial readiness. The robots are coming. They will just take longer than the bull case assumed.
Photo: Industrial manufacturing facility / Pexels